Spread: Clippers (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (44%) · Hornets at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Clippers47¢Hornets53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$28.24

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers47%

Hornets54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets4 traders

Total Value$643.2

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL+$20.64

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$246.16

Total Shares502

Combined PnL+$7.6

Hornets — 44%Clippers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hornetsavg 54¢	$279.72	$277.13	-$2.59	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
RN1	Hornetsavg 49.3¢	$222.04	$254.37	+$32.33	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 56¢	$204	$200	-$4	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 56¢	$112	$107	-$5
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46¢	$92	$93	+$1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$90.06	$88.93	-$1.13	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46¢	$51.98	$52.55	+$0.57
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 56¢	$38.08	$36.38	-$1.7
FL Flaznorp<$100	Hornetsavg 56¢	$73.18	$75.14	+$1.96	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$69	$69.75	+$0.75	48% 653-714 (1367)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$63.36	$66.96	+$3.6	48% 654-715 (1369)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Clippersavg 46.6¢	$59.13	$59.7	+$0.57	56% 4197-3286 (7483)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 52.4¢	$29.49	$30.11	+$0.62
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.6¢	$29.64	$29.59	-$0.05
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$54.99	$57.49	+$2.5	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
SU suntori<$100	Hornetsavg 56¢	$47.61	$36.56	-$11.05	46% 3415-3955 (7370)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 46¢	$30.09	$29.64	-$0.45	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Clippersavg 44¢	$21.12	$22.32	+$1.2	57% 3689-2778 (6467)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hornets

Invested

$279.72

Value

$277.13

PnL

-$2.59

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

RN1

Hornets

Invested

$222.04

Value

$254.37

PnL

+$32.33

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$204

Value

$200

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Both legs:

Hornets$11256¢-$5

Clippers$9246¢+$1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$90.06

Value

$88.93

PnL

-$1.13

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Both legs:

Clippers$51.9846¢+$0.57

Hornets$38.0856¢-$1.7

Flaznorp<$100

Hornets

Invested

$73.18

Value

$75.14

PnL

+$1.96

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$69

Value

$69.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

653-714 (1367)

micky456CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$63.36

Value

$66.96

PnL

+$3.6

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$59.13

Value

$59.7

PnL

+$0.57

Record

56%

4197-3286 (7483)

Both legs:

Hornets$29.4952.4¢+$0.62

Clippers$29.6446.6¢-$0.05

LimousinCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$54.99

Value

$57.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

suntori<$100

Hornets

Invested

$47.61

Value

$36.56

PnL

-$11.05

Record

46%

3415-3955 (7370)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$30.09

Value

$29.64

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$21.12

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$1.2

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.