Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$208.28

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 72.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,721

Combined PnL+$340.58

Over1 trader

Total Value$171.38

Total Shares1,143

Combined PnL-$132.29

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 73.4¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$410.34	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.4¢	$845.16	$915.09	+$69.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$796.35	$316.08	-$480.27
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 69¢	$603.55	$656.47	+$52.92	53% 290-259 (549)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49¢	$312.4	$398.08	+$151.4	31% 411-924 (1335)
RN1	Underavg 54¢	$148.89	$219.28	+$70.39	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 26.6¢	$303.67	$171.38	-$132.29	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 48¢	$66.38	$117.55	+$51.17	31% 412-920 (1332)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 53¢	$29.39	$44.09	+$14.7	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,641.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$410.34

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Under$845.1673.4¢+$69.92

Over$796.3551.6¢-$480.27

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$603.55

Value

$656.47

PnL

+$52.92

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$312.4

Value

$398.08

PnL

+$151.4

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

RN1

Under

Invested

$148.89

Value

$219.28

PnL

+$70.39

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$303.67

Value

$171.38

PnL

-$132.29

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$117.55

PnL

+$51.17

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$29.39

Value

$44.09

PnL

+$14.7

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.