Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 19¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 12

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 18.5¢

-65% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares20,463

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Over2 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares18,973

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marvelousmarvin	Underavg 47¢	$8.6K	$14.9K	+$6.3K	30% 16-37 (53)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 53¢	$9.2K	$5.8K	$-3.5K	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 65.5¢	$1.0K	$687	-$36.39	53% 290-259 (549)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 52.3¢	$819.33	$523.56	-$295.77	55% 719-584 (1303)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$265.52	$438.92	+$173.4	31% 412-920 (1332)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 34.2¢	$545.19	$368.07	-$83.12	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.2¢	$370.81	$206.07	-$139.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$106	$162	+$56
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$277.11	$242.55	-$34.56	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$152.32	$159.46	+$7.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$124.79	$83.09	-$41.7
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$119	$192.78	+$73.78	30% 402-921 (1323)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49¢	$132.76	$181.53	+$48.77	31% 411-924 (1335)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$3.35	+$0.9	31% 412-897 (1309)

marvelousmarvin

Under

Invested

$8,643.06

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

30%

16-37 (53)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$9,238.1

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,016.73

Value

$687

PnL

-$36.39

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$819.33

Value

$523.56

PnL

-$295.77

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$265.52

Value

$438.92

PnL

+$173.4

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$545.19

Value

$368.07

PnL

-$83.12

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Over$370.8134.2¢-$139.12

Under$10653¢+$56

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$277.11

Value

$242.55

PnL

-$34.56

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

Both legs:

Under$152.3264¢+$7.14

Over$124.7949.6¢-$41.7

Limousin

Under

Invested

$119

Value

$192.78

PnL

+$73.78

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$132.76

Value

$181.53

PnL

+$48.77

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.9

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance20.3%

18.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$392.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

493.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.