Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 26¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$359.38

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 25.5¢

-52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$574.47

Total Shares737

Combined PnL+$218

Over4 traders

Total Value$507.1

Total Shares1,983

Combined PnL-$577.38

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$1.2K	$812.6	-$391.52	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.9¢	$223.88	$419.86	+$199.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.9¢	$984.23	$392.74	-$591.49
LI LightParadox	Underavg 46.9¢	$199.14	$339.39	+$140.25	31% 412-920 (1332)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 53.3¢	$318.88	$186.24	-$132.64	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 49¢	$451.88	$184.45	-$267.42	29% 177-431 (608)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 54¢	$90.94	$119.63	+$28.68	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
VE Venusian	Underavg 46¢	$66.38	$115.44	+$49.06	31% 411-924 (1335)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 67¢	$247.35	$109.31	-$138.03	53% 290-259 (549)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$66.38	$27.09	-$39.29	30% 402-921 (1323)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,218.13

Value

$812.6

PnL

-$391.52

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Under$223.8842.9¢+$199.97

Over$984.2348.9¢-$591.49

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$199.14

Value

$339.39

PnL

+$140.25

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$318.88

Value

$186.24

PnL

-$132.64

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$451.88

Value

$184.45

PnL

-$267.42

Record

29%

177-431 (608)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$90.94

Value

$119.63

PnL

+$28.68

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$115.44

PnL

+$49.06

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$247.35

Value

$109.31

PnL

-$138.03

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.38

Value

$27.09

PnL

-$39.29

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.