Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 59¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 12

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

$6.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 59¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$29.3K

Total Shares47,387

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Under3 traders

Total Value$518.41

Total Shares1,280

Combined PnL-$53.08

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Overavg 47.1¢	$18.3K	$23.7K	+$5.4K	61% 1010-635 (1645)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 45.4¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$389.14	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 53.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$205	55% 719-584 (1303)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 46¢	$660	$875.21	+$215.22	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1	Overavg 51.5¢	$257.31	$303.75	+$46.44	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$317.7	$280.51	-$37.19	31% 412-918 (1330)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$187.41	$168.97	-$18.44	30% 401-920 (1321)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$66.38	$68.93	+$2.55	31% 410-897 (1307)

PacersThreeandahalf

Over

Invested

$18,305.83

Value

$23.7K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,444.52

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$389.14

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,436.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$205

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$660

Value

$875.21

PnL

+$215.22

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1

Over

Invested

$257.31

Value

$303.75

PnL

+$46.44

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$317.7

Value

$280.51

PnL

-$37.19

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$187.41

Value

$168.97

PnL

-$18.44

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.38

Value

$68.93

PnL

+$2.55

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.