Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 67¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 12

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$48.26

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 66.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares21,968

Combined PnL+$0.45

Under3 traders

Total Value$397.22

Total Shares801

Combined PnL-$48.71

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Overavg 49¢	$10.5K	$10.5K	+$0	61% 1010-635 (1645)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$35.73	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.8¢	$506.37	$530.02	+$23.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.8¢	$502	$514.08	+$12.08
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$626.12	$704.58	+$78.46	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.3¢	$447.86	$519.05	+$71.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$178.26	$185.53	+$7.28
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$265.52	$265.52	+$0	31% 412-918 (1330)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 56¢	$287.97	$251.97	-$36	70% 1671-717 (2388)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 54.7¢	$131.45	$122.46	-$8.99	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$26.51	$22.79	-$3.72	47% 299-342 (641)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 44¢	$3.93	$4.38	+$0.45	53% 290-259 (549)

PacersThreeandahalf

Over

Invested

$10,494.48

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,008.37

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.73

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Over$506.3746.8¢+$23.65

Under$50249.8¢+$12.08

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$626.12

Value

$704.58

PnL

+$78.46

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Over$447.8642.3¢+$71.19

Under$178.2649¢+$7.28

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$265.52

Value

$265.52

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$287.97

Value

$251.97

PnL

-$36

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$131.45

Value

$122.46

PnL

-$8.99

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.51

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$3.72

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$3.93

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.