Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (58%) · Celtics at 95¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Raptors6¢Celtics94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 58%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$887.45

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 94.5¢

+55% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors6%

Celtics95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,483

Combined PnL+$807.39

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$570.64

Total Shares5,277

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Celtics — 58%Raptors — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 73.2¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$447.74	55% 719-584 (1303)
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 48.9¢	$909.44	$1.7K	+$821.4	37% 121-203 (324)
LI LightParadox	Celticsavg 48.7¢	$265.52	$506.57	+$241.05	31% 412-920 (1332)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 73.5¢	$304.3	$341.55	+$37.25	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 47.8¢	$908.47	$335.92	-$572.55	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Celticsavg 50.3¢	$128.75	$211.2	+$82.45	53% 290-259 (549)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raptorsavg 38.5¢	$1.1K	$184.96	-$910.38	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
VE Venusian	Celticsavg 48¢	$66.38	$128.61	+$62.23	31% 411-924 (1335)
LR lryyy<$100	Celticsavg 70.9¢	$65.98	$76.73	+$10.74	45% 257-310 (567)
38 38791873984189CTR	Raptorsavg 36.4¢	$262.72	$26	-$148.41	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 52.5¢	$94.64	$14.05	-$41.59	49% 693-734 (1427)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 57¢	$31.61	$9.71	-$21.91	53% 1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$2,601.66

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$447.74

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$909.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$821.4

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

LightParadox

Celtics

Invested

$265.52

Value

$506.57

PnL

+$241.05

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$304.3

Value

$341.55

PnL

+$37.25

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$908.47

Value

$335.92

PnL

-$572.55

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Celtics

Invested

$128.75

Value

$211.2

PnL

+$82.45

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

6512395314597884CTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,095.35

Value

$184.96

PnL

-$910.38

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Venusian

Celtics

Invested

$66.38

Value

$128.61

PnL

+$62.23

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

lryyy<$100

Celtics

Invested

$65.98

Value

$76.73

PnL

+$10.74

Record

45%

257-310 (567)

38791873984189CTR

Raptors

Invested

$262.72

Value

$26

PnL

-$148.41

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$94.64

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$41.59

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$31.61

Value

$9.71

PnL

-$21.91

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.