Spread: Raptors (-21.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 50%
$4.1K
$89.72
90.3¢ → 96.8¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Celticsavg 90.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$117.48 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Celticsavg 89.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$47.14 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
TA takeormake | Celticsavg 90.7¢ | $283.15 | $237.53 | -$45.62 | 58% 3212-2312 (5524) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 3¢ | $8 | $17.33 | +$9.33 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 15¢ | $35.85 | $0.84 | -$35.01 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 11¢ | $4.31 | $0.71 | -$3.6 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
Invested
$2,083.21
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$117.48
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$1,621.69
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$47.14
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$283.15
Value
$237.53
PnL
-$45.62
Record
58%
3212-2312 (5524)
Invested
$8
Value
$17.33
PnL
+$9.33
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$35.85
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$35.01
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$4.31
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$3.6
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.