Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Raptors (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (63%) · Celtics at 43¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Raptors57¢Celtics43¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$345.99

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 43¢

-22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors57%

Celtics43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,205

Combined PnL-$441.07

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,606

Combined PnL+$95.08

Celtics — 63%Raptors — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Celticsavg 55.1¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$439.52	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Raptorsavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1	Raptorsavg 43.8¢	$226.06	$289.19	+$63.13	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Celticsavg 55¢	$127.82	$129.09	+$1.27	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
LI Limousin	Raptorsavg 32¢	$92.93	$124.87	+$31.94	30% 401-920 (1321)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 69¢	$204.94	$122.02	-$29.02	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 69¢	$86.94	$69.3	-$31.36
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 43¢	$50.38	$52.72	+$2.34
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Celticsavg 59.6¢	$16.44	$13.37	-$3.07	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$3.78	$3.86	+$0.08	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Celticsavg 49.2¢	$1.94	$2.11	+$0.17	55% 719-584 (1303)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Celtics

Invested

$2,184.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$439.52

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Raptors

Invested

$1,709.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$226.06

Value

$289.19

PnL

+$63.13

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

6512395314597884CTR

Celtics

Invested

$127.82

Value

$129.09

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Limousin

Raptors

Invested

$92.93

Value

$124.87

PnL

+$31.94

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$204.94

Value

$122.02

PnL

-$29.02

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Celtics$86.9469¢-$31.36

Raptors$50.3843¢+$2.34

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$16.44

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$3.07

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.