Spread: Raptors (-19.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (14%) · Celtics at 100¢ · $770 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 14%
$770.25
-$499.8
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Celticsavg 94¢ | $744.54 | $649.98 | -$94.56 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
 RN1CTR | Raptorsavg 12.3¢ | $348.84 | $71 | -$277.84 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 9.6¢ | $98.76 | $34.94 | -$63.83 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 15.4¢ | $30.8 | $5 | -$25.8 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 9.6¢ | $13.89 | $3.6 | -$10.29 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 14.5¢ | $18.83 | $3.25 | -$15.58 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 14.4¢ | $14.4 | $2.5 | -$11.9 | 53% 5821-5182 (11003) |
Invested
$744.54
Value
$649.98
PnL
-$94.56
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
RN1CTRInvested
$348.84
Value
$71
PnL
-$277.84
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$98.76
Value
$34.94
PnL
-$63.83
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$5
PnL
-$25.8
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$10.29
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$18.83
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$15.58
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$11.9
Record
53%
5821-5182 (11003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.