Spread: Raptors (-15.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (67%) · Celtics at 99¢ · $745 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 67%
$745.15
$10.55
81.6¢ → 98.5¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Celticsavg 67¢ | $322.07 | $347.02 | +$144.74 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
65 6512395314597884 | Celticsavg 99¢ | $281.2 | $201.46 | -$79.74 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
 RN1 | Celticsavg 90.5¢ | $254.32 | $188.16 | -$48.96 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Celticsavg 60¢ | $3 | $4.7 | +$1.7 | 60% 2617-1724 (4341) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $10.21 | $3.09 | -$7.12 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
E5 0xe550...be3fCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 1¢ | $0.79 | $0.71 | -$0.08 | — |
Invested
$322.07
Value
$347.02
PnL
+$144.74
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$281.2
Value
$201.46
PnL
-$79.74
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
RN1Invested
$254.32
Value
$188.16
PnL
-$48.96
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$3
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$1.7
Record
60%
2617-1724 (4341)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$3.09
PnL
-$7.12
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.