Spread: Raptors (-11.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (29%) · Celtics at 97¢ · $784 held · ended Nov 12

Raptors4¢Celtics96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 29%

Total Value

$784.42

Combined PnL

-$80.69

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 96.5¢

+67% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors4%

Celtics97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$632.75

Total Shares673

Combined PnL+$215.68

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$151.67

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL-$296.38

Celtics — 29%Raptors — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Celticsavg 55¢	$251.9	$439.68	+$187.78	37% 121-203 (324)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 64¢	$165.17	$193.07	+$27.9	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 40.8¢	$323.99	$107.33	-$216.66	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$92.04	$29.17	-$62.87	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 22¢	$17.73	$10.88	-$6.85	53% 290-259 (549)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45¢	$13.5	$4.05	-$9.45	49% 693-734 (1427)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.24	-$0.54	55% 719-584 (1303)

biying88888

Celtics

Invested

$251.9

Value

$439.68

PnL

+$187.78

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$165.17

Value

$193.07

PnL

+$27.9

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$323.99

Value

$107.33

PnL

-$216.66

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$92.04

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$62.87

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$17.73

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$6.85

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$13.5

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$9.45

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.54

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.