Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 75¢ · $691 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics25¢Raptors75¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$690.62

Combined PnL

-$5.74

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 75¢

-18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics25%

Raptors75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$558.55

Total Shares689

Combined PnL-$70.19

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$132.07

Total Shares689

Combined PnL+$64.45

Raptors — 50%Celtics — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Raptorsavg 91.7¢	$384.34	$339.6	-$44.74	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
RN1	Raptorsavg 91¢	$194.74	$172.27	-$22.47	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 8.3¢	$53.26	$124.61	+$71.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 92¢	$46	$41.53	-$4.48	49% 693-734 (1427)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Raptorsavg 61¢	$3.66	$5.15	+$1.49	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Celticsavg 36.3¢	$9.86	$3.8	-$6.06	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Celticsavg 14¢	$2.45	$2.97	+$0.52	55% 719-584 (1303)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Celticsavg 41¢	$2.05	$0.7	-$1.35	30% 402-921 (1323)

6512395314597884

Raptors

Invested

$384.34

Value

$339.6

PnL

-$44.74

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$194.74

Value

$172.27

PnL

-$22.47

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$53.26

Value

$124.61

PnL

+$71.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$46

Value

$41.53

PnL

-$4.48

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.66

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$1.49

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.86

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$6.06

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.52

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

LimousinCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.05

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.35

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.