Spread: Celtics (-26.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 98¢ · $919 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
$919.1
-$2.81
94.8¢ → 98.4¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 94.8¢ | $711.76 | $713.41 | +$1.65 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Raptorsavg 95¢ | $166.35 | $173.26 | +$6.92 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 6¢ | $31.62 | $27.71 | -$3.92 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 6¢ | $3.18 | $2.65 | -$0.53 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 5¢ | $9 | $2.07 | -$6.93 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
Invested
$711.76
Value
$713.41
PnL
+$1.65
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$166.35
Value
$173.26
PnL
+$6.92
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$27.71
PnL
-$3.92
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.53
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$6.93
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.