Spread: Celtics (-20.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (57%) · Raptors at 97¢ · $916 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
7
Raptors 57%
$915.92
$26.25
88.4¢ → 97¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 87.2¢ | $365.78 | $378.29 | +$12.51 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 90¢ | $336.52 | $342.92 | +$6.4 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Raptorsavg 88¢ | $146.45 | $158.93 | +$12.48 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 14¢ | $30.64 | $26.2 | -$4.44 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Raptorsavg 86¢ | $4.47 | $4.78 | +$0.31 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 14¢ | $5.32 | $4.55 | -$0.77 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 9¢ | $0.49 | $0.25 | -$0.25 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
Invested
$365.78
Value
$378.29
PnL
+$12.51
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1Invested
$336.52
Value
$342.92
PnL
+$6.4
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$146.45
Value
$158.93
PnL
+$12.48
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$30.64
Value
$26.2
PnL
-$4.44
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$4.47
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0.31
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$4.55
PnL
-$0.77
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.