Spread: Celtics (-11.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (71%) · Raptors at 80¢ · $641 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics20¢Raptors80¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$640.79

Combined PnL

$68.93

Smart Money Entry

80.7¢ → 80¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics20%

Raptors80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$473.15

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$64.19

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$7.82

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$4.74

Raptors — 71%Celtics — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Raptorsavg 94¢	$232.18	$217.23	-$14.94	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
38 38791873984189	Raptorsavg 64.8¢	$136.3	$204.15	+$67.84	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Raptorsavg 63.6¢	$252.49	$159.81	+$120.86	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 63.6¢	$89.13	$113.84	+$93.74
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 7.7¢	$18.85	$45.97	+$27.12
PA Pan9X<$100	Raptorsavg 79.1¢	$61.28	$34.75	+$10.67	49% 693-734 (1427)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Raptorsavg 94¢	$13.01	$12.17	-$0.84	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Celticsavg 2¢	$1.28	$7.72	+$6.44	55% 719-584 (1303)
SE sentrio<$100	Raptorsavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.86	+$1.46	39% 395-620 (1015)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Celticsavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.1	-$1.7	31% 411-924 (1335)

RN1

Raptors

Invested

$232.18

Value

$217.23

PnL

-$14.94

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

38791873984189

Raptors

Invested

$136.3

Value

$204.15

PnL

+$67.84

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$252.49

Value

$159.81

PnL

+$120.86

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Both legs:

Raptors$89.1363.6¢+$93.74

Celtics$18.857.7¢+$27.12

Pan9X<$100

Raptors

Invested

$61.28

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$10.67

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

6512395314597884<$100

Raptors

Invested

$13.01

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$0.84

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.28

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$6.44

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

sentrio<$100

Raptors

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$1.46

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

VenusianCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.7

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.