Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 241.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 93¢ · $531 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$530.93
$6.36
94¢ → 92.6¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 92.8¢ | $301.32 | $295.33 | +$3.13 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 95.8¢ | $210 | $208.18 | -$1.83 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $8 | $12 | +$4 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 6¢ | $9.12 | $9.12 | +$0 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 5¢ | $5.25 | $6.3 | +$1.05 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
RN1Invested
$301.32
Value
$295.33
PnL
+$3.13
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$210
Value
$208.18
PnL
-$1.83
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$8
Value
$12
PnL
+$4
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.12
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$1.05
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.