Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 239.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 91¢ · $427 held · ended Nov 11

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$426.54

Combined PnL

$19.43

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 91¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$302.89

Total Shares297

Combined PnL+$17.28

Over4 traders

Total Value$8.92

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$2.15

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 90.5¢	$255.67	$267.5	+$11.83	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 89.3¢	$74.62	$114.73	+$40.1	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Over leg	Overavg 4¢	$31.44	$70.74	+$39.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 89.3¢	$43.18	$43.98	+$0.8
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 95¢	$37.99	$35.39	+$5.45	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$2	$4.5	+$2.5	49% 446-472 (918)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 9.8¢	$4.12	$3.59	-$0.53	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$0.43	$0.65	+$0.22	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.22	$0.18	-$0.04	35% 266-489 (755)

RN1

Under

Invested

$255.67

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$11.83

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$74.62

Value

$114.73

PnL

+$40.1

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Over$31.444¢+$39.3

Under$43.1889.3¢+$0.8

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$37.99

Value

$35.39

PnL

+$5.45

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.12

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.53

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.