Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 88¢ · $507 held · ended Nov 11

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

Total Value

$507.4

Combined PnL

-$20.93

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 87.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$430.4

Total Shares510

Combined PnL-$22.93

Over2 traders

Total Value$77

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$2

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 89¢	$178	$169	-$9	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 89¢	$89	$84.5	-$4.5	65% 175-96 (271)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 89¢	$89	$84.5	-$4.5	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
dips.<$100	Underavg 89¢	$89	$84.5	-$4.5	42% 230-315 (545)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$55	$57.5	+$2.5	56% 488-383 (871)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$20	$19.5	-$0.5	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
RN1<$100	Underavg 82¢	$8.33	$7.9	-$0.43	58% 3802-2782 (6584)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$178

Value

$169

PnL

-$9

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$89

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$89

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$89

Value

$84.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$8.33

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$0.43

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.