Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$15.42

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 77.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,086

Combined PnL-$43.46

Over4 traders

Total Value$307.19

Total Shares1,308

Combined PnL+$28.04

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 80¢	$554.91	$551.83	-$3.08	52% 128-120 (248)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 78.4¢	$504.27	$416.12	+$22.51	48% 947-1017 (1964)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 84.5¢	$445.43	$343.34	-$57.98	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 77.9¢	$204.27	$217.92	+$13.65	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Under leg	Underavg 77.9¢	$174.27	$169.92	-$4.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 15¢	$30	$48	+$18
SU suitcase6628	Underavg 81¢	$129.6	$116.8	-$12.8	65% 175-96 (271)
RN1	Underavg 66¢	$115.79	$116.79	+$1	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 18.8¢	$67.63	$113.89	+$46.25	56% 488-383 (871)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$99.62	$92.5	-$7.12	28% 274-715 (989)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 78.4¢	$130.4	$88.49	+$5.99	49% 443-470 (913)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$76.17	$67.51	-$8.66	28% 278-729 (1007)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 78.8¢	$57.31	$58.21	+$0.9	54% 383-321 (704)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$35.72	$33.28	-$2.44	28% 284-730 (1014)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$554.91

Value

$551.83

PnL

-$3.08

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$504.27

Value

$416.12

PnL

+$22.51

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$445.43

Value

$343.34

PnL

-$57.98

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$204.27

Value

$217.92

PnL

+$13.65

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Under$174.2777.9¢-$4.35

Over$3015¢+$18

suitcase6628

Under

Invested

$129.6

Value

$116.8

PnL

-$12.8

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

RN1

Under

Invested

$115.79

Value

$116.79

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$67.63

Value

$113.89

PnL

+$46.25

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.62

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$7.12

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$130.4

Value

$88.49

PnL

+$5.99

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.17

Value

$67.51

PnL

-$8.66

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$57.31

Value

$58.21

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.72

Value

$33.28

PnL

-$2.44

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.