Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$29.14

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 72¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$419.44

Total Shares534

Combined PnL+$20.85

Over3 traders

Total Value$127.97

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$8.28

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 74.6¢	$958.36	$944.94	-$13.42	56% 502-393 (895)
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.6¢	$655.7	$659.58	+$3.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.5¢	$302.67	$285.35	-$17.31
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 74.6¢	$1.1K	$511.47	+$29.4	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.6¢	$227.53	$264	+$36.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.6¢	$258.12	$247.47	-$7.07
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 72¢	$419.59	$408.56	+$20.98	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 75¢	$108.45	$115.6	+$7.15	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75¢	$90.09	$90.1	+$0.02
└ Over leg	Overavg 18¢	$18.36	$25.5	+$7.14
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 15.7¢	$32.88	$59.57	+$26.68	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$76	$57	-$19	54% 217-188 (405)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$10.8	$11.4	+$0.6	64% 179-99 (278)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 77¢	$16.79	$10.88	-$0.12	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$958.36

Value

$944.94

PnL

-$13.42

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

Under$655.774.6¢+$3.89

Over$302.6726.5¢-$17.31

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,116.06

Value

$511.47

PnL

+$29.4

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Over$227.5324.6¢+$36.47

Under$258.1274.6¢-$7.07

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$419.59

Value

$408.56

PnL

+$20.98

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$108.45

Value

$115.6

PnL

+$7.15

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Invested

$32.88

Value

$59.57

PnL

+$26.68

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76

Value

$57

PnL

-$19

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$16.79

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.