Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 75¢ · $810 held · ended Nov 11

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$809.87

Combined PnL

$68.23

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 75¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$562.72

Total Shares804

Combined PnL-$9.69

Over1 trader

Total Value$247.16

Total Shares551

Combined PnL+$77.92

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 74.4¢	$413.8	$400.34	-$13.46	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 25.5¢	$169.24	$247.16	+$77.92	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 60.7¢	$129.58	$130.5	+$0.92	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 57.7¢	$22.92	$24.68	+$1.76	56% 488-383 (871)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 61¢	$6.1	$7.2	+$1.1	49% 443-470 (913)

RN1

Under

Invested

$413.8

Value

$400.34

PnL

-$13.46

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$169.24

Value

$247.16

PnL

+$77.92

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$129.58

Value

$130.5

PnL

+$0.92

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$22.92

Value

$24.68

PnL

+$1.76

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.1

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.