Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 207.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 86¢ · $975 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$974.66
$7.92
74.5¢ → 85.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 86%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 71.3¢ | $530.33 | $595.2 | +$64.87 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 25.5¢ | $228.66 | $201.38 | -$27.29 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 87¢ | $174 | $144 | -$30 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Overavg 70.8¢ | $15.93 | $16.84 | +$0.91 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100 | Underavg 24¢ | $15.03 | $15.35 | +$0.31 | 54% 217-188 (405) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $1.33 | $1.25 | -$0.08 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $0.65 | -$0.8 | 28% 279-704 (983) |
Invested
$530.33
Value
$595.2
PnL
+$64.87
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
RN1CTRInvested
$228.66
Value
$201.38
PnL
-$27.29
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$174
Value
$144
PnL
-$30
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$15.93
Value
$16.84
PnL
+$0.91
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$15.03
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$0.31
Record
54%
217-188 (405)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.8
Record
28%
279-704 (983)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.