Spread: 76ers (-6.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (63%) · Celtics at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

76ers<1¢Celtics>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 63%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$311.33

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 99.5¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers1%

Celtics100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,790

Combined PnL+$27.74

76ers3 traders

Total Value$13.31

Total Shares2,661

Combined PnL-$339.07

Celtics — 63%76ers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Celtics) disagree here.

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 89.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$74.83	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 83.8¢	$704.44	$807.28	+$102.84	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 85.6¢	$166.87	$165.75	-$1.12	48% 959-1032 (1991)
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 87¢	$75.57	$73.85	-$1.72	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 81¢	$66.38	$56.95	+$2.57	49% 446-472 (918)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 12.6¢	$288.46	$11.48	-$276.98	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	76ersavg 22¢	$44	$1	-$43	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1CTR<$100	76ersavg 12¢	$19.92	$0.83	-$19.09	58% 3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$1,452.37

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$74.83

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$704.44

Value

$807.28

PnL

+$102.84

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$166.87

Value

$165.75

PnL

-$1.12

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$75.57

Value

$73.85

PnL

-$1.72

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.38

Value

$56.95

PnL

+$2.57

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$288.46

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$276.98

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$44

Value

PnL

-$43

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$19.92

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$19.09

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Celtics) disagree here.

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.