Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (56%) · Celtics at 81¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

76ers20¢Celtics80¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$59.8

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 80.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers20%

Celtics81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,341

Combined PnL+$159.79

76ers4 traders

Total Value$431.23

Total Shares2,456

Combined PnL-$219.58

Celtics — 56%76ers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 82.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$116.56	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 84¢	$534.39	$559.81	+$25.42	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Celticsavg 81¢	$328.77	$428.4	+$149.59	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 8.3¢	$94.01	$215.44	+$149.59
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 81¢	$212.96	$212.96	+$0
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	76ersavg 24.8¢	$371.9	$285.38	-$86.52	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1	Celticsavg 81.1¢	$214.8	$233.2	+$18.4	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 26.4¢	$118.28	$85.29	-$32.99	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 84.2¢	$65.61	$60.44	+$0.33	49% 446-472 (918)
TA takeormake<$100	Celticsavg 90¢	$59.4	$58.48	-$0.92	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
VE VenusianCTR	76ersavg 31.8¢	$152.7	$57.68	-$95.02	28% 304-772 (1076)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 33¢	$7.94	$2.89	-$5.05	49% 220-228 (448)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$1,963.51

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$116.56

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$534.39

Value

$559.81

PnL

+$25.42

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$328.77

Value

$428.4

PnL

+$149.59

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

76ers$94.018.3¢+$149.59

Celtics$212.9681¢+$0

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

76ers

Invested

$371.9

Value

$285.38

PnL

-$86.52

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$214.8

Value

$233.2

PnL

+$18.4

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$118.28

Value

$85.29

PnL

-$32.99

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$65.61

Value

$60.44

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

takeormake<$100

Celtics

Invested

$59.4

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$0.92

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

VenusianCTR

76ers

Invested

$152.7

Value

$57.68

PnL

-$95.02

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.94

Value

$2.89

PnL

-$5.05

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.