Spread: 76ers (-4.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (43%) · Celtics at 80¢ · $669 held · ended Nov 11

76ers20¢Celtics80¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 43%

Total Value

$668.91

Combined PnL

-$4

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 80¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers20%

Celtics80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$507.47

Total Shares648

Combined PnL+$32.83

76ers4 traders

Total Value$161.44

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$36.83

Celtics — 43%76ers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (7 on 76ers) disagree here.

ctr76ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Celticsavg 74.1¢	$436.15	$458.96	+$22.81	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 25.8¢	$149.4	$127.16	-$22.24	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
38 38791873984189<$100	Celticsavg 63¢	$29.2	$37.08	+$7.88	48% 949-1019 (1968)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 37¢	$42.23	$29.55	-$12.69	48% 190-206 (396)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Celticsavg 65¢	$9.29	$11.43	+$2.14	56% 488-383 (871)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 30.9¢	$4.89	$3.48	-$1.4	49% 444-470 (914)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	76ersavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.25	-$0.5	28% 275-716 (991)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$436.15

Value

$458.96

PnL

+$22.81

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$149.4

Value

$127.16

PnL

-$22.24

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

38791873984189<$100

Celtics

Invested

$29.2

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$7.88

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$42.23

Value

$29.55

PnL

-$12.69

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Celtics

Invested

$9.29

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$2.14

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.89

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$1.4

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.5

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (7 on 76ers) disagree here.

ctr76ers 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.