Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors 76ers (88%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (89%) · Celtics at 13¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics13¢76ers87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 12.5¢

-69% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics13%

76ers88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares8,843

Combined PnL$-1.2K

76ers1 trader

Total Value$33.78

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$6.57

Celtics — 89%76ers — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Celticsavg 40.2¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	-$789.2	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	76ersavg 60.9¢	$597.33	$808.46	+$211.13	56% 502-393 (895)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 60.9¢	$447.33	$528.46	+$81.13
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 15¢	$150	$280	+$130
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 57.9¢	$218.58	$254.44	+$35.86	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 57.9¢	$147.74	$183.6	+$35.86
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 28¢	$70.84	$70.84	+$0
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 42.4¢	$269.82	$180.5	-$89.32	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
TA takeormakeCTR	Celticsavg 36.1¢	$181.84	$141.12	-$40.72	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Celticsavg 28.9¢	$87.97	$85.17	-$2.8	54% 217-188 (405)
VE VenusianCTR	Celticsavg 41.9¢	$137.48	$42.62	-$94.86	28% 304-772 (1076)
LI LimousinCTR	Celticsavg 42¢	$133.18	$41.22	-$91.96	29% 313-784 (1097)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$59.8	$36.4	-$23.4	30% 134-317 (451)
SE sentrio<$100	76ersavg 58¢	$27.21	$33.78	+$6.57	35% 266-489 (755)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Celticsavg 42¢	$66.65	$20.63	-$46.02	28% 298-765 (1063)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Celtics

Invested

$2,604.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$789.2

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$597.33

Value

$808.46

PnL

+$211.13

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Both legs:

76ers$447.3360.9¢+$81.13

Celtics$15015¢+$130

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$218.58

Value

$254.44

PnL

+$35.86

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

76ers$147.7457.9¢+$35.86

Celtics$70.8428¢+$0

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$269.82

Value

$180.5

PnL

-$89.32

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

takeormakeCTR

Celtics

Invested

$181.84

Value

$141.12

PnL

-$40.72

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$87.97

Value

$85.17

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

VenusianCTR

Celtics

Invested

$137.48

Value

$42.62

PnL

-$94.86

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

LimousinCTR

Celtics

Invested

$133.18

Value

$41.22

PnL

-$91.96

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$59.8

Value

$36.4

PnL

-$23.4

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

sentrio<$100

76ers

Invested

$27.21

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$6.57

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.65

Value

$20.63

PnL

-$46.02

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.