Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors 76ers (66%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-7.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (64%) · Celtics at 35¢ · $66K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics35¢76ers65¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$66.2K

Combined PnL

$-10.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 34.5¢

-33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics35%

76ers66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$46.6K

Total Shares70,623

Combined PnL+$12.2K

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares75,287

Combined PnL$-22.8K

76ers — 36%Celtics — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (11 on Celtics) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	76ersavg 48.5¢	$32.6K	$44.3K	+$11.7K	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
GO googleplayCTR	Celticsavg 51.5¢	$35.4K	$13.7K	$-21.6K	49% 59-61 (120)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Celticsavg 32.3¢	$4.1K	$3.6K	-$299.87	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 47.6¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$803.42
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 32.3¢	$2.9K	$1.8K	$-1.1K
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 53.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$381.92	56% 502-393 (895)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Celticsavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$648.95	54% 217-188 (405)
BI biying88888CTR	Celticsavg 47¢	$375.53	$271.66	-$103.87	27% 63-170 (233)
RN1	76ersavg 49¢	$119.07	$160.38	+$41.31	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Celticsavg 54¢	$168.34	$140.23	-$28.11	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 62.3¢	$79.79	$84.48	+$4.69
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 54¢	$88.55	$55.75	-$32.8
LI LightParadoxCTR	Celticsavg 47.9¢	$321.1	$134.04	-$187.06	28% 298-765 (1063)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Celticsavg 46.8¢	$274.24	$117.23	-$157.01	29% 307-748 (1055)
SE sentrio<$100	76ersavg 50¢	$54.14	$71.41	+$17.26	35% 266-489 (755)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$66.74	$29.02	-$37.72	29% 313-784 (1097)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Celticsavg 35.1¢	$23.19	$14.19	-$9	28% 304-772 (1076)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

76ers

Invested

$32,592.47

Value

$44.3K

PnL

+$11.7K

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

googleplayCTR

Celtics

Invested

$35,387.85

Value

$13.7K

PnL

$-21.6K

Record

49%

59-61 (120)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4,121.63

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$299.87

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

76ers$1,079.3247.6¢+$803.42

Celtics$2,896.3232.3¢$-1.1K

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$1,694.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$381.92

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Celtics

Invested

$2,116.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$648.95

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

biying88888CTR

Celtics

Invested

$375.53

Value

$271.66

PnL

-$103.87

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$119.07

Value

$160.38

PnL

+$41.31

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

takeormakeARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$168.34

Value

$140.23

PnL

-$28.11

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Both legs:

76ers$79.7962.3¢+$4.69

Celtics$88.5554¢-$32.8

LightParadoxCTR

Celtics

Invested

$321.1

Value

$134.04

PnL

-$187.06

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

MadridTimeCTR

Celtics

Invested

$274.24

Value

$117.23

PnL

-$157.01

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

sentrio<$100

76ers

Invested

$54.14

Value

$71.41

PnL

+$17.26

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

LimousinCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$66.74

Value

$29.02

PnL

-$37.72

Record

29%

313-784 (1097)

VenusianCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$23.19

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$9

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (11 on Celtics) disagree here.

whaleCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCeltics 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.