Spread: Celtics (-13.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (40%) · 76ers at 81¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
5
76ers 40%
$3.1K
$205.53
77.8¢ → 80.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | 76ersavg 77.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$433.76 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Celticsavg 24.5¢ | $625.62 | $433.56 | -$192.07 | 54% 217-188 (405) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Celticsavg 19.3¢ | $179.01 | $157.76 | -$21.25 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 22.6¢ | $69.14 | $51.95 | -$17.18 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | 76ersavg 78¢ | $35.45 | $37.73 | +$2.27 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
Invested
$1,960.49
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$433.76
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$625.62
Value
$433.56
PnL
-$192.07
Record
54%
217-188 (405)
Invested
$179.01
Value
$157.76
PnL
-$21.25
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$69.14
Value
$51.95
PnL
-$17.18
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$35.45
Value
$37.73
PnL
+$2.27
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.