Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Over18¢Under82¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$131.59

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 82.5¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,372

Combined PnL+$158.9

Over7 traders

Total Value$165.49

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$27.31

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 71.6¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$158.99	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 71.1¢	$706.93	$674.64	-$32.29	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71.1¢	$426.93	$489.64	+$62.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 28¢	$280	$185	-$95
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$166.65	$140.62	-$26.04	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$85.68	$102.69	+$17.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.5¢	$80.97	$37.93	-$43.05
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$52.13	$53.07	+$0.95	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$72	$51	-$21	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$26.2	$25.74	-$0.46	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$24	$17	-$7	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 73¢	$14.02	$13.92	-$0.1	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$11.97	$11.76	-$0.21	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$5.22	$5.51	+$0.29	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$1.28	$1.4	+$0.13	47% 2148-2414 (4562)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,869.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$158.99

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$706.93

Value

$674.64

PnL

-$32.29

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Under$426.9371.1¢+$62.71

Over$28028¢-$95

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$166.65

Value

$140.62

PnL

-$26.04

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Under$85.6868¢+$17.01

Over$80.9739.5¢-$43.05

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.13

Value

$53.07

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72

Value

$51

PnL

-$21

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.2

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$17

PnL

-$7

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$14.02

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.97

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.51

PnL

+$0.29

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.