Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 218.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 72¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$827.91

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 72¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares8,139

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over3 traders

Total Value$929.51

Total Shares3,262

Combined PnL-$630.13

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$3.6K	$4.9K	+$1.3K	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
PL plustiCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.5K	$890.62	-$609.38	47% 17-19 (36)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 49.4¢	$614.06	$507.97	-$106.09	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.8¢	$214.1	$281.33	+$67.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$399.96	$226.63	-$173.33
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 53.9¢	$333.95	$420.27	+$86.32	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$321.89	$333.75	+$11.86	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.8¢	$149.33	$239.76	+$90.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.4¢	$172.56	$93.99	-$78.57
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 59¢	$142.3	$160.8	+$18.5	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
VE Venusian	Underavg 43¢	$107.52	$103.68	-$3.84	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$55.64	$71.16	+$15.52	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 45¢	$61.1	$55.25	-$5.85	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$46.2	$29.92	-$16.28	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$13.44	$8.96	-$4.48	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.11	$8.22	-$0.89	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 71¢	$6.98	$7.08	+$0.1	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.13	$2.13	+$0	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 40¢	$1.87	$1.98	+$0.12	50% 48622-48197 (96819)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,594.85

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

plustiCTR

Over

Invested

$1,500

Value

$890.62

PnL

-$609.38

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$614.06

Value

$507.97

PnL

-$106.09

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Under$214.154.8¢+$67.23

Over$399.9649.4¢-$173.33

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$333.95

Value

$420.27

PnL

+$86.32

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$321.89

Value

$333.75

PnL

+$11.86

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Under$149.3344.8¢+$90.43

Over$172.5651.4¢-$78.57

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$142.3

Value

$160.8

PnL

+$18.5

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$107.52

Value

$103.68

PnL

-$3.84

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$55.64

Value

$71.16

PnL

+$15.52

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$61.1

Value

$55.25

PnL

-$5.85

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.2

Value

$29.92

PnL

-$16.28

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.44

Value

$8.96

PnL

-$4.48

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$9.11

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$0.89

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$6.98

Value

$7.08

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.