Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (42%) · Celtics at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics79¢Bucks21¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 42%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$272.95

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 78.5¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics79%

Bucks22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,587

Combined PnL+$318.14

Bucks7 traders

Total Value$173.17

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$45.19

Celtics — 42%Bucks — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Celticsavg 60.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$30.3	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
65 6512395314597884	Celticsavg 57.8¢	$409.43	$439.1	+$29.66	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 45¢	$231.3	$364.94	+$133.64	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 39.8¢	$151.73	$253.7	+$101.98	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
AN Anon455CTR	Bucksavg 30.4¢	$143.77	$101.68	-$42.09	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
38 38791873984189<$100	Celticsavg 45.4¢	$39.92	$62.48	+$22.56	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 42.4¢	$34.82	$39.23	+$4.41	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$26.88	$21	-$5.88	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 38¢	$4.63	$4.82	+$0.19	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bucksavg 37¢	$2.92	$3.03	+$0.12	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Bucksavg 37¢	$1.71	$1.79	+$0.07	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$3.64	$1.62	-$2.01	46% 2028-2381 (4409)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$1,089.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.3

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

6512395314597884

Celtics

Invested

$409.43

Value

$439.1

PnL

+$29.66

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$231.3

Value

$364.94

PnL

+$133.64

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$151.73

Value

$253.7

PnL

+$101.98

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Anon455CTR

Bucks

Invested

$143.77

Value

$101.68

PnL

-$42.09

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

38791873984189<$100

Celtics

Invested

$39.92

Value

$62.48

PnL

+$22.56

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$34.82

Value

$39.23

PnL

+$4.41

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$26.88

Value

$21

PnL

-$5.88

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.63

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

hi774cCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3.64

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$2.01

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.