Spread: Celtics (-26.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (33%) · Bucks at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

Celtics43¢Bucks57¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$8.58

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 57.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics43%

Bucks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks2 traders

Total Value$575.43

Total Shares939

Combined PnL+$4.57

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$78.87

Total Shares406

Combined PnL+$4.01

Bucks — 33%Celtics — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBucks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Bucksavg 83.4¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$313.25	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 83.4¢	$1.0K	$726.57	-$309.25
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 42¢	$336	$332	-$4
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bucksavg 59.3¢	$369.82	$598.7	+$228.88	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 18¢	$180	$410	+$230
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 59.3¢	$189.82	$188.7	-$1.12
BI biying88888	Bucksavg 58¢	$485.66	$490.23	+$4.57	47% 242-270 (512)
SE sentrio<$100	Bucksavg 84.9¢	$85.2	$85.2	+$0	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
RN1CTR<$100	Celticsavg 10.8¢	$26.18	$36.3	+$10.12	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 43¢	$32.2	$21.91	-$6.3	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Celticsavg 15¢	$12.79	$13.22	+$0.43	54% 593-502 (1095)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Celticsavg 16¢	$7.68	$7.44	-$0.24	45% 14434-17741 (32175)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1,371.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$313.25

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Bucks$1,035.8283.4¢-$309.25

Celtics$33642¢-$4

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$369.82

Value

$598.7

PnL

+$228.88

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Celtics$18018¢+$230

Bucks$189.8259.3¢-$1.12

biying88888

Bucks

Invested

$485.66

Value

$490.23

PnL

+$4.57

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

sentrio<$100

Bucks

Invested

$85.2

Value

$85.2

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

RN1CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$26.18

Value

$36.3

PnL

+$10.12

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$32.2

Value

$21.91

PnL

-$6.3

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$12.79

Value

$13.22

PnL

+$0.43

Record

54%

593-502 (1095)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$0.24

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBucks 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBucks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bucks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.