Celtics vs. Bucks

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (47%) · Celtics at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics86¢Bucks14¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 47%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$13.12

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 85.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics86%

Bucks14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,269

Combined PnL+$17.13

Bucks8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares13,561

Combined PnL-$4.01

Celtics — 47%Bucks — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 85.5¢	$1.5K	$773.05	+$5.31	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
NM NM-P	Celticsavg 86¢	$1.1K	$575.1	+$5.43	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P	Celticsavg 86¢	$999.99	$499.99	+$5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
Medo3DCTR	Bucksavg 14¢	$513.78	$495.44	-$18.35	41% 182-264 (446)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Bucksavg 13.2¢	$424.41	$464.95	+$40.54	49% 115-119 (234)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$2.1K	$277.02	+$10.26	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
DA darkumbreon88	Celticsavg 86¢	$256.46	$221.84	+$1.28	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$202.94	$210.75	+$7.81	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$1.5K	$198.86	+$7.37	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
OD OddstormCTR	Bucksavg 18.9¢	$136.12	$100.37	-$35.76	48% 8319-8875 (17194)
SE sentrioCTR	Bucksavg 13¢	$634.11	$85.6	+$3.17	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Bucksavg 20¢	$58.6	$39.56	-$19.05	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
PA Pan9X	Celticsavg 86¢	$204.9	$10.92	+$0.07	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Celticsavg 86¢	$10	$8.65	+$0.05	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Celticsavg 87¢	$2.02	$2	-$0.02	59% 44-30 (74)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$1,526.26

Value

$773.05

PnL

+$5.31

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

NM-P

Celtics

Invested

$1,086.82

Value

$575.1

PnL

+$5.43

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P

Celtics

Invested

$999.99

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Medo3DCTR

Bucks

Invested

$513.78

Value

$495.44

PnL

-$18.35

Record

41%

182-264 (446)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Bucks

Invested

$424.41

Value

$464.95

PnL

+$40.54

Record

49%

115-119 (234)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,052

Value

$277.02

PnL

+$10.26

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

darkumbreon88

Celtics

Invested

$256.46

Value

$221.84

PnL

+$1.28

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$202.94

Value

$210.75

PnL

+$7.81

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,500

Value

$198.86

PnL

+$7.37

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

OddstormCTR

Bucks

Invested

$136.12

Value

$100.37

PnL

-$35.76

Record

48%

8319-8875 (17194)

sentrioCTR

Bucks

Invested

$634.11

Value

$85.6

PnL

+$3.17

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$58.6

Value

$39.56

PnL

-$19.05

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Pan9X

Celtics

Invested

$204.9

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Aceplus3<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.02

Value

PnL

-$0.02

Record

59%

44-30 (74)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.