Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 25¢ · $220 held · ended Nov 12

Over75¢Under25¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$219.59

Combined PnL

$9.82

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 25¢

-55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$208.81

Total Shares357

Combined PnL+$8.39

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.77

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$1.43

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 56¢	$192.08	$200.66	+$8.57	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$6.46	$6.11	-$0.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
RN1<$100	Overavg 39¢	$2.54	$3.58	+$1.04	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.46	$3.3	+$0.84	55% 683-554 (1237)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.88	$2.04	+$0.16	55% 719-584 (1303)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.2	$1.95	-$0.25	— 7-5 (12)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$1.95	-$0.2	34% 328-634 (962)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$192.08

Value

$200.66

PnL

+$8.57

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$2.54

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.04

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.84

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.25

Record

—

7-5 (12)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

34%

328-634 (962)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.