Spread: Nets (-2.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (75%) · Nets at 74¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Nets74¢Pelicans26¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 75%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$329.08

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 73.5¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nets74%

Pelicans27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,183

Combined PnL+$811.27

Pelicans2 traders

Total Value$665.39

Total Shares2,294

Combined PnL-$482.19

Nets — 75%Pelicans — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (6 on Nets) disagree here.

ctrNets 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Netsavg 48.7¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$704.35	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Netsavg 60¢	$349.37	$427.97	+$78.61	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1	Netsavg 69.3¢	$580.12	$408.82	-$93.54	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Pelicansavg 50.1¢	$645.18	$373.56	-$271.62	53% 1852-1667 (3519)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pelicansavg 49.9¢	$502.4	$291.83	-$210.57	55% 719-584 (1303)
MA MadridTime	Netsavg 32¢	$123.56	$231.67	+$108.11	31% 412-897 (1309)
E5 0xe550...be3f<$100	Netsavg 50¢	$49.09	$39.33	+$13.74	—
65 6512395314597884<$100	Netsavg 74¢	$11.3	$11.3	-$0	50% 3301-3258 (6559)

Flaznorp

Nets

Invested

$1,860.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$704.35

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Nets

Invested

$349.37

Value

$427.97

PnL

+$78.61

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1

Nets

Invested

$580.12

Value

$408.82

PnL

-$93.54

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$645.18

Value

$373.56

PnL

-$271.62

Record

53%

1852-1667 (3519)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$502.4

Value

$291.83

PnL

-$210.57

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

MadridTime

Nets

Invested

$123.56

Value

$231.67

PnL

+$108.11

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

0xe550...be3f<$100

Nets

Invested

$49.09

Value

$39.33

PnL

+$13.74

Record

—

6512395314597884<$100

Nets

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.3

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Pelicans) and the top 1000 (6 on Nets) disagree here.

ctrNets 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nets 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.