Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 50¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$93.63

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,292

Combined PnL+$71.25

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,044

Combined PnL+$22.38

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$14.33	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$56.03	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 49¢	$606.48	$625.05	+$18.57	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49.8¢	$347.25	$352.08	+$4.83	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
SH shiifoo<$100	Underavg 49¢	$24.5	$27.5	+$3	60% 1448-950 (2398)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 49¢	$21.07	$18.06	-$3.01	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 64¢	$9.37	$5.79	-$1.03	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.5	$4.5	+$1	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.5	+$0.05	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.58	$2.47	-$0.11	50% 2685-2651 (5336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$2,236.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$14.33

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,335.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$56.03

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$606.48

Value

$625.05

PnL

+$18.57

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$347.25

Value

$352.08

PnL

+$4.83

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

shiifoo<$100

Under

Invested

$24.5

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$3

Record

60%

1448-950 (2398)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$21.07

Value

$18.06

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.37

Value

$5.79

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.