Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$4.31

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 56.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$962.14

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL+$12.99

Under6 traders

Total Value$759.98

Total Shares1,718

Combined PnL-$8.68

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 56¢	$943.84	$957.09	+$13.25	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44¢	$396.42	$391.92	-$4.5	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 44¢	$330.35	$326.6	-$3.75	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$19.36	$20	+$0.64	70% 1725-752 (2477)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$9.41	$10.04	+$0.63	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$10.21	$7.99	-$2.22	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 39.4¢	$5.3	$5.04	-$0.26	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$2.92	$3.44	+$0.52	50% 2685-2651 (5336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$943.84

Value

$957.09

PnL

+$13.25

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$396.42

Value

$391.92

PnL

-$4.5

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$330.35

Value

$326.6

PnL

-$3.75

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.36

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.64

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.41

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.21

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$2.22

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.26

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.52

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.