Spread: Grizzlies (-14.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (43%) · Nets at 78¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Grizzlies23¢Nets77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 43%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

-$381.2

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 77.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies23%

Nets78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares16,000

Combined PnL+$78.82

Grizzlies8 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares10,648

Combined PnL-$460.02

Nets — 43%Grizzlies — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luckycat888888	Netsavg 57¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	-$550	28% 48-122 (170)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Netsavg 54.5¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	+$242.03	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Grizzliesavg 44.4¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	+$214.08	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Grizzliesavg 45.1¢	$2.5K	$1.8K	-$568.9	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Grizzliesavg 48.1¢	$725.63	$631.54	-$94.09	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LightParadox	Netsavg 49¢	$462.48	$550.54	+$183.13	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Netsavg 53.3¢	$250	$375.07	+$125.07	33% 14-29 (43)
NO NotJumpCTR	Grizzliesavg 44¢	$220	$215	-$5	51% 970-935 (1905)
MA MadridTime	Netsavg 50¢	$123.5	$136.04	+$78.6	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
yabanci<$100	Netsavg 57¢	$71.1	$71.1	-$0	— 9-3 (12)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$16.73	$17.08	+$0.35	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 39¢	$11.76	$6.03	-$5.73	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 48.5¢	$4.85	$5.15	+$0.3	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 40¢	$2.05	$1.02	-$1.03	37% 1155-1966 (3121)

luckycat888888

Nets

Invested

$5,700

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$550

Record

28%

48-122 (170)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nets

Invested

$4,799.16

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$242.03

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,003.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$214.08

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$2,534.16

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$568.9

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

FlaznorpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$725.63

Value

$631.54

PnL

-$94.09

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LightParadox

Nets

Invested

$462.48

Value

$550.54

PnL

+$183.13

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Nets

Invested

$250

Value

$375.07

PnL

+$125.07

Record

33%

14-29 (43)

NotJumpCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$220

Value

$215

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

MadridTime

Nets

Invested

$123.5

Value

$136.04

PnL

+$78.6

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

yabanci<$100

Nets

Invested

$71.1

Value

$71.1

PnL

-$0

Record

—

9-3 (12)

sentrioCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$16.73

Value

$17.08

PnL

+$0.35

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

LimousinCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$11.76

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$5.73

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

VenusianCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$1.03

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrizzlies 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.