Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nets (62%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Grizzlies (-10.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (54%) · Grizzlies at 38¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Grizzlies38¢Nets62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 54%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$332.59

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 38¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 62%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies38%

Nets62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,925

Combined PnL+$779.19

Grizzlies7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,134

Combined PnL-$446.6

Nets — 46%Grizzlies — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Netsavg 46.7¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$544.18	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Grizzliesavg 61.4¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$256.73	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Grizzliesavg 44.3¢	$1.0K	$871.72	-$145.23	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
FL Flaznorp	Netsavg 38.2¢	$347.05	$563.65	+$216.6	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Grizzliesavg 48.6¢	$596.93	$466.38	-$130.55	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
VE VenusianCTR	Grizzliesavg 30¢	$77.19	$149.23	+$72.04	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Netsavg 42¢	$53.34	$78.74	+$25.4	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Netsavg 54¢	$77.56	$75.41	-$2.15	49% 572-596 (1168)
PA Pan9X<$100	Netsavg 50.4¢	$97.25	$69.34	-$3.93	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 54.8¢	$57.67	$57.9	+$0.24	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 28¢	$20.98	$43.45	+$22.48	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Grizzliesavg 61.9¢	$40.91	$32.06	-$8.85	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Netsavg 38¢	$17.1	$16.2	-$0.9	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Nets

Invested

$1,666.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$544.18

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,447.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$256.73

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

LightParadoxCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,016.96

Value

$871.72

PnL

-$145.23

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Flaznorp

Nets

Invested

$347.05

Value

$563.65

PnL

+$216.6

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

MadridTimeCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$596.93

Value

$466.38

PnL

-$130.55

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

VenusianCTR

Grizzlies

Invested

$77.19

Value

$149.23

PnL

+$72.04

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Nets

Invested

$53.34

Value

$78.74

PnL

+$25.4

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Nets

Invested

$77.56

Value

$75.41

PnL

-$2.15

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Pan9X<$100

Nets

Invested

$97.25

Value

$69.34

PnL

-$3.93

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$57.67

Value

$57.9

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LimousinCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$20.98

Value

$43.45

PnL

+$22.48

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$40.91

Value

$32.06

PnL

-$8.85

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

ferdinand2<$100

Nets

Invested

$17.1

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 38%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 62%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.