Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Hawks (51%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (33%) · Bucks at 50¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 16

Hawks51¢Bucks49¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

-$40.11

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks51%

Bucks50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,858

Combined PnL-$87.41

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares9,237

Combined PnL+$47.3

Bucks — 33%Hawks — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (5 on Hawks) disagree here.

ctrBucks 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Bucksavg 49¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$36.72	51% 793-768 (1561)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Hawksavg 50¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$29.44	48% 738-786 (1524)
73 739633786CTR	Bucksavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$50	12% 27-207 (234)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawksavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.71	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Bucksavg 49.6¢	$995.58	$992.34	-$3.25	44% 78-99 (177)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 49.6¢	$800.73	$783.27	-$17.45
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48¢	$194.85	$209.06	+$14.21
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 50¢	$256.5	$256.48	-$0.02	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50¢	$127	$128.27	+$1.27
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 50¢	$129.5	$128.21	-$1.29
NM NM-P	Hawksavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	59% 3987-2766 (6753)
GC GC-P	Hawksavg 50¢	$250	$252.5	+$2.5	43% 589-793 (1382)
IA ianf2026	Hawksavg 49¢	$99.45	$100.47	+$1.01	14% 15-89 (104)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Hawksavg 48¢	$79.66	$82.16	+$2.5	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 48¢	$39.85	$42.76	+$2.91
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 49¢	$39.8	$39.4	-$0.41
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawksavg 50¢	$12.5	$12.63	+$0.13	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Bucksavg 55¢	$7.61	$6.92	-$0.69	46% 3434-3964 (7398)

nigiri99CTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,598.56

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$36.72

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

Multicoloured-Serf

Hawks

Invested

$2,944.45

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$29.44

Record

48%

738-786 (1524)

739633786CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,299.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

12%

27-207 (234)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawks

Invested

$1,169.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.71

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$995.58

Value

$992.34

PnL

-$3.25

Record

44%

78-99 (177)

Both legs:

Bucks$800.7349.6¢-$17.45

Hawks$194.8548¢+$14.21

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$256.5

Value

$256.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

GC-P

Hawks

Invested

$250

Value

$252.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

43%

589-793 (1382)

ianf2026

Hawks

Invested

$99.45

Value

$100.47

PnL

+$1.01

Record

14%

15-89 (104)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$79.66

Value

$82.16

PnL

+$2.5

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

Both legs:

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

suntoriCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$7.61

Value

$6.92

PnL

-$0.69

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (5 on Hawks) disagree here.

ctrBucks 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.