Spread: Hawks (-7.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (47%) · Hawks at 54¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Hawks54¢Bucks46¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 47%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$70.7

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 53.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks54%

Bucks47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,351

Combined PnL+$258.88

Bucks8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares12,028

Combined PnL-$188.18

Hawks — 47%Bucks — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (14 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scootergene	Hawksavg 51¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$219.64	11% 18-140 (158)
nehcnehcCTR	Bucksavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$193.12	36% 63-110 (173)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawksavg 53¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$18.35	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$753	$753	-$0	48% 720-766 (1486)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$504.71	$522.2	+$17.49	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$490	$235	+$5	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
NM NM-P	Hawksavg 53¢	$185.5	$185.5	+$0	59% 3950-2729 (6679)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Hawksavg 52¢	$156	$159	+$3	36% 26-47 (73)
GC GC-P	Hawksavg 53¢	$127.58	$127.58	+$0	42% 548-748 (1296)
SE sentrioCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$101.55	$101.55	-$0	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$11.75	$11.75	-$0	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.6	+$0.4	46% 643-756 (1399)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	56% 668-530 (1198)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.3	-$0.1	43% 861-1147 (2008)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bucksavg 46¢	$1.62	$1.65	+$0.04	48% 3968-4327 (8295)

scootergene

Hawks

Invested

$4,480.58

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$219.64

Record

11%

18-140 (158)

nehcnehcCTR

Bucks

Invested

$4,731.37

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$193.12

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawks

Invested

$1,945.12

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18.35

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bucks

Invested

$753

Value

$753

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

HomeRunHazard

Hawks

Invested

$504.71

Value

$522.2

PnL

+$17.49

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$490

Value

$235

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

NM-P

Hawks

Invested

$185.5

Value

$185.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3950-2729 (6679)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Hawks

Invested

$156

Value

$159

PnL

+$3

Record

36%

26-47 (73)

GC-P

Hawks

Invested

$127.58

Value

$127.58

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

sentrioCTR

Bucks

Invested

$101.55

Value

$101.55

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Hawks

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (14 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.