Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

6 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (32%) · Hawks at 63¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 3

Hawks63¢Pacers37¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 32%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.5K

Combined PnL

$460.45

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 62.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks63%

Pacers38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares36,023

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Pacers13 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares27,510

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Hawks — 32%Pacers — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPacers 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 69% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Hawksavg 49¢	$13.3K	$8.0K	+$1.5K	51% 325-313 (638)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 50.4¢	$6.0K	$7.2K	+$1.2K	46% 7292-8602 (15894)
AS askilika	Hawksavg 62¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$33.45	50% 209-211 (420)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$5.3K	$3.9K	$-1.3K	47% 2628-2928 (5556)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$4.6K	$3.4K	$-1.2K	50% 2584-2583 (5167)
LI Limousin	Hawksavg 49.5¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$329.61	53% 352-316 (668)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 38.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$39.4	54% 17531-14733 (32264)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pacersavg 44.7¢	$807.74	$725.02	-$73.77	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pacersavg 43.2¢	$504.37	$461.09	-$43.28	51% 17681-16677 (34358)
LI LightParadox	Hawksavg 50.9¢	$337.87	$408.14	+$63.64	53% 344-307 (651)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pacersavg 47.3¢	$730.02	$395.78	-$72.54	47% 13123-14702 (27825)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47.3¢	$297.37	$235.79	-$78.94
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 56¢	$143.35	$159.99	+$6.4
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Hawksavg 54¢	$189.05	$211.81	+$22.76	46% 472-546 (1018)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pacersavg 42.9¢	$212.83	$199.75	-$13.08	50% 25023-24743 (49766)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 42.9¢	$155.33	$141.28	-$14.05
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 59¢	$57.5	$58.47	+$0.97
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 53¢	$265	$195	-$70	53% 5755-5091 (10846)
fyrskenCTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$175.99	$155.99	-$18	48% 301-323 (624)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Pacersavg 44¢	$105.19	$93.24	-$5.98	48% 5526-5987 (11513)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Pacersavg 48.9¢	$54.75	$42	-$12.75	58% 29926-21975 (51901)
GH ghorrockCTR	Pacersavg 47.5¢	$107.57	$32.63	-$14.15	57% 17417-12995 (30412)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Pacersavg 44¢	$13.64	$12.09	-$0.78	52% 6446-5833 (12279)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pacersavg 53¢	$10.6	$7.9	-$2.7	56% 7479-5990 (13469)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.7	$1.95	-$0.75	53% 7659-6922 (14581)

Venusian

Hawks

Invested

$13,318.26

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

325-313 (638)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$5,978.12

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

46%

7292-8602 (15894)

askilika

Hawks

Invested

$4,147.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$33.45

Record

50%

209-211 (420)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Pacers

Invested

$5,300

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

2628-2928 (5556)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Pacers

Invested

$4,580.56

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

2584-2583 (5167)

Limousin

Hawks

Invested

$1,763.05

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$329.61

Record

53%

352-316 (668)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$1,783.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$39.4

Record

54%

17531-14733 (32264)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pacers

Invested

$807.74

Value

$725.02

PnL

-$73.77

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

FlaznorpCTR

Pacers

Invested

$504.37

Value

$461.09

PnL

-$43.28

Record

51%

17681-16677 (34358)

LightParadox

Hawks

Invested

$337.87

Value

$408.14

PnL

+$63.64

Record

53%

344-307 (651)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$730.02

Value

$395.78

PnL

-$72.54

Record

47%

13123-14702 (27825)

Both legs:

Pacers$297.3747.3¢-$78.94

Hawks$143.3556¢+$6.4

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Hawks

Invested

$189.05

Value

$211.81

PnL

+$22.76

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

sentrioARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$212.83

Value

$199.75

PnL

-$13.08

Record

50%

25023-24743 (49766)

Both legs:

Pacers$155.3342.9¢-$14.05

Hawks$57.559¢+$0.97

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$265

Value

$195

PnL

-$70

Record

53%

5755-5091 (10846)

fyrskenCTR

Pacers

Invested

$175.99

Value

$155.99

PnL

-$18

Record

48%

301-323 (624)

ferdinand2CTR

Pacers

Invested

$105.19

Value

$93.24

PnL

-$5.98

Record

48%

5526-5987 (11513)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$54.75

Value

$42

PnL

-$12.75

Record

58%

29926-21975 (51901)

ghorrockCTR

Pacers

Invested

$107.57

Value

$32.63

PnL

-$14.15

Record

57%

17417-12995 (30412)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$13.64

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$0.78

Record

52%

6446-5833 (12279)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$10.6

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$2.7

Record

56%

7479-5990 (13469)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

7659-6922 (14581)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePacers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPacers 69% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 69% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.