Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 260.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 100¢ · $513 held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$513.37

Combined PnL

$74.47

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 99.6¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$435.65

Total Shares459

Combined PnL+$16.75

Over6 traders

Total Value$77.72

Total Shares727

Combined PnL+$57.72

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 86¢	$212.79	$205.98	-$6.81	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 84¢	$73.92	$75.68	+$1.76	45% 706-873 (1579)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 86¢	$57.33	$57.33	+$0	37% 819-1385 (2204)
RN1	Underavg 82¢	$150.86	$55.02	+$4.78	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$3.03	$42.42	+$39.39	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 83¢	$103.75	$41.65	+$17.03	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 2.2¢	$2.62	$16.35	+$13.73	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 1.2¢	$1.2	$7.45	+$6.25	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$6	$4.2	-$1.8	36% 879-1566 (2445)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$1.52	$3.71	+$2.2	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$5.64	$3.59	-$2.05	37% 924-1557 (2481)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$212.79

Value

$205.98

PnL

-$6.81

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$73.92

Value

$75.68

PnL

+$1.76

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$57.33

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

RN1

Under

Invested

$150.86

Value

$55.02

PnL

+$4.78

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.03

Value

$42.42

PnL

+$39.39

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$103.75

Value

$41.65

PnL

+$17.03

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.62

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$13.73

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$6.25

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.52

Value

$3.71

PnL

+$2.2

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.64

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$2.05

Record

37%

924-1557 (2481)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.