Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 252.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$73.56

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 82.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$739.98

Total Shares953

Combined PnL-$34.16

Over4 traders

Total Value$107.89

Total Shares423

Combined PnL-$39.4

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 78.5¢	$688.01	$630.45	-$43.31	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 30.4¢	$250.14	$225.82	-$24.32	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.4¢	$160.14	$137.02	-$23.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 75¢	$90	$88.8	-$1.2
38 38791873984189	Underavg 64¢	$157.4	$72.47	+$11.08	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$89.73	$64.81	-$24.92	36% 910-1584 (2494)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$55.55	$41.3	-$14.25	48% 852-928 (1780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 64¢	$16.64	$19.24	+$2.6	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94¢	$343.19	$17.81	-$4.54	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.3	-$0.45	36% 890-1596 (2486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$0.26	$0.48	+$0.23	37% 819-1385 (2204)

RN1

Under

Invested

$688.01

Value

$630.45

PnL

-$43.31

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$250.14

Value

$225.82

PnL

-$24.32

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Both legs:

Over$160.1430.4¢-$23.12

Under$9075¢-$1.2

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$157.4

Value

$72.47

PnL

+$11.08

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.73

Value

$64.81

PnL

-$24.92

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55.55

Value

$41.3

PnL

-$14.25

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$16.64

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$2.6

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$343.19

Value

$17.81

PnL

-$4.54

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.45

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.23

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.