Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Toronto FC (77%) · Toronto FC at 63¢ · $71K held · ended Nov 7

Philadelphia Union37¢Toronto FC63¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toronto FC

Consensus Traders

Toronto FC 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.4K

Combined PnL

$18.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 63¢

+41% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralToronto FC at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toronto FC

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Philadelphia Union37%

Toronto FC63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toronto FC17 traders

Total Value$70.6K

Total Shares108,694

Combined PnL+$18.8K

Philadelphia Union5 traders

Total Value$617.09

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL-$321.52

Toronto FC — 77%Philadelphia Union — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Toronto FCavg 45¢	$17.8K	$24.5K	+$6.7K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Toronto FCavg 45.1¢	$8.8K	$11.1K	+$2.4K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VE Venusian	Toronto FCavg 44.2¢	$5.6K	$7.3K	+$1.7K	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTime	Toronto FCavg 43.1¢	$4.3K	$6.3K	+$2.0K	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadox	Toronto FCavg 42.8¢	$4.2K	$6.2K	+$2.0K	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI Limousin	Toronto FCavg 49.2¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$838.52	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
HI hi774c	Toronto FCavg 46.6¢	$2.8K	$3.8K	+$995.86	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
LU LuckyLoo	Toronto FCavg 43¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$537.87	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
AY ay118	Toronto FCavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$459.07	44% 57-73 (130)
FE fekefee	Toronto FCavg 42¢	$929.04	$1.4K	+$464.52	89% 39-5 (44)
0xheavy888	Toronto FCavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$233.54	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
NO Notradecopy	Toronto FCavg 41¢	$500	$768.29	+$268.29	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
SN SnakeBall	Toronto FCavg 35.8¢	$266.65	$456.11	+$189.46	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
Painfulvoid	Toronto FCavg 46.2¢	$283.95	$387.45	+$103.5	54% 1878-1618 (3496)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Philadelphia Unionavg 53¢	$428.4	$299.07	-$129.33	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Philadelphia Unionavg 61.7¢	$422.43	$259.78	-$162.66	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Philadelphia Unionavg 59.2¢	$246.19	$130.4	-$36.67	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Philadelphia Union leg	Philadelphia Unionavg 59.2¢	$106.15	$66.31	-$39.84
└ Toronto FC leg	Toronto FCavg 48.5¢	$49.34	$64.09	+$3.16
alpheclabs2	Toronto FCavg 45.4¢	$76.34	$105.84	+$29.5	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
nigiri99<$100	Toronto FCavg 44¢	$32.56	$46.62	+$14.06	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
SE sentrio<$100	Toronto FCavg 55¢	$20.82	$23.85	+$3.03	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Philadelphia Unionavg 62¢	$38.53	$23	-$15.54	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Philadelphia Unionavg 61.7¢	$21.86	$18.66	-$3.2	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
US User7429CTR<$100	Philadelphia Unionavg 61.8¢	$27.39	$16.59	-$10.8	56% 9429-7491 (16920)

Flaznorp

Toronto FC

Invested

$17,806

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Toronto FC

Invested

$8,752.33

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Venusian

Toronto FC

Invested

$5,552.89

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTime

Toronto FC

Invested

$4,313.08

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadox

Toronto FC

Invested

$4,188.85

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Limousin

Toronto FC

Invested

$2,988.91

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$838.52

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

hi774c

Toronto FC

Invested

$2,818.69

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$995.86

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

LuckyLoo

Toronto FC

Invested

$1,156.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$537.87

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

ay118

Toronto FC

Invested

$1,060.02

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$459.07

Record

44%

57-73 (130)

fekefee

Toronto FC

Invested

$929.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$464.52

Record

89%

39-5 (44)

0xheavy888

Toronto FC

Invested

$1,039.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$233.54

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Notradecopy

Toronto FC

Invested

$500

Value

$768.29

PnL

+$268.29

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

SnakeBall

Toronto FC

Invested

$266.65

Value

$456.11

PnL

+$189.46

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Painfulvoid

Toronto FC

Invested

$283.95

Value

$387.45

PnL

+$103.5

Record

54%

1878-1618 (3496)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$428.4

Value

$299.07

PnL

-$129.33

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

NordhavenCapCTR

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$422.43

Value

$259.78

PnL

-$162.66

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$246.19

Value

$130.4

PnL

-$36.67

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Philadelphia Union$106.1559.2¢-$39.84

Toronto FC$49.3448.5¢+$3.16

alpheclabs2

Toronto FC

Invested

$76.34

Value

$105.84

PnL

+$29.5

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

nigiri99<$100

Toronto FC

Invested

$32.56

Value

$46.62

PnL

+$14.06

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

sentrio<$100

Toronto FC

Invested

$20.82

Value

$23.85

PnL

+$3.03

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$38.53

Value

$23

PnL

-$15.54

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$21.86

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$3.2

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

User7429CTR<$100

Philadelphia Union

Invested

$27.39

Value

$16.59

PnL

-$10.8

Record

56%

9429-7491 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralToronto FC at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Toronto FC

17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toronto FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.