Tlaxcala FC vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 3.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 5

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$88.26

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 72¢

+23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,825

Combined PnL+$92.13

Over3 traders

Total Value$79.21

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$3.88

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.6¢	$490.5	$594.29	+$103.79	51% 24276-22998 (47274)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 58.2¢	$535.27	$524	-$11.27	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$71.97	$69.19	-$2.77	58% 6502-4666 (11168)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 57¢	$20.89	$20.89	+$0	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 58.2¢	$18.64	$18.25	-$0.39	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.99	$7.63	-$0.36	74% 2423-864 (3287)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$87.58	$2.38	-$0.75	58% 45483-32930 (78413)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$490.5

Value

$594.29

PnL

+$103.79

Record

51%

24276-22998 (47274)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$535.27

Value

$524

PnL

-$11.27

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$71.97

Value

$69.19

PnL

-$2.77

Record

58%

6502-4666 (11168)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$20.89

Value

$20.89

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$18.64

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$0.39

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$0.36

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.58

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.75

Record

58%

45483-32930 (78413)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.