Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$465.21

Smart Money Entry

36.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$910.35

Total Shares912

Combined PnL+$365.69

Under5 traders

Total Value$447.32

Total Shares2,688

Combined PnL-$830.9

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 56¢	$472.93	$824.02	+$351.09	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 41.2¢	$718.63	$446.48	-$272.15	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 82.8¢	$29.8	$35.98	+$6.18	13% 27-178 (205)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 84¢	$30	$35.69	+$5.7	53% 5912-5294 (11206)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 67¢	$5.63	$7.96	+$2.33	36% 410-719 (1129)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 79¢	$6.3	$6.69	+$0.4	52% 597-541 (1138)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 23.7¢	$234.67	$0.49	-$234.18	31% 441-967 (1408)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 49¢	$296.82	$0.3	-$296.51	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$16.66	$0.02	-$16.64	31% 438-969 (1407)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 26.6¢	$11.44	$0.02	-$11.42	32% 444-952 (1396)

RN1

Over

Invested

$472.93

Value

$824.02

PnL

+$351.09

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$718.63

Value

$446.48

PnL

-$272.15

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$29.8

Value

$35.98

PnL

+$6.18

Record

13%

27-178 (205)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$35.69

PnL

+$5.7

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.63

Value

$7.96

PnL

+$2.33

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$234.67

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$234.18

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$296.82

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$296.51

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.66

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$16.64

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.44

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.42

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.