Will Club Atletico La Paz win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes23¢No77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$227.9

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 77.5¢

+20% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,930

Combined PnL+$226.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$214.52

Total Shares822

Combined PnL+$1.76

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 63.9¢	$982.31	$1.2K	+$232.93	16% 55-297 (352)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 35.4¢	$538.74	$465.64	-$73.1	53% 2421-2179 (4600)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.4¢	$332.61	$244.03	-$88.57
└ No leg	Noavg 68.8¢	$206.13	$221.6	+$15.47
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 61.8¢	$124.94	$116.26	-$8.68	49% 214-226 (440)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$72.08	$72.08	-$0	41% 147-215 (362)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$58.19	$61.1	+$2.91	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 78¢	$60.2	$60.97	+$0.77	36% 595-1070 (1665)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 60¢	$30	$32	+$2	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$29.82	$28.69	-$1.13	38% 1210-2005 (3215)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$28.31	$28.35	+$0.05	38% 1351-2180 (3531)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$27.79	$27.79	+$0	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$26.4	$25.2	-$1.2	48% 1156-1264 (2420)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 61¢	$10.14	$10.48	+$0.33	56% 621-486 (1107)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.78	-$0.13	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 62¢	$73.63	$2.64	+$0.05	54% 1691-1455 (3146)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$982.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$232.93

Record

16%

55-297 (352)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$538.74

Value

$465.64

PnL

-$73.1

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

Both legs:

Yes$332.6135.4¢-$88.57

No$206.1368.8¢+$15.47

WagerWizard

Invested

$124.94

Value

$116.26

PnL

-$8.68

Record

49%

214-226 (440)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.08

Value

$72.08

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

147-215 (362)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.19

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$2.91

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$60.2

Value

$60.97

PnL

+$0.77

Record

36%

595-1070 (1665)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$32

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$28.69

PnL

-$1.13

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.31

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1351-2180 (3531)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.79

Value

$27.79

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

48%

1156-1264 (2420)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

621-486 (1107)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$73.63

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.