Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-11-07?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares9,723

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.38

Total Shares2,756

Combined PnL-$488.96

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79¢	$1.0K	$3.2K	+$603.39	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 79.1¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$629.3	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
GL glennyorkshire	Noavg 80¢	$963.86	$1.2K	+$240.36	45% 205-249 (454)
NM NM-P	Noavg 79¢	$684.43	$739.66	+$55.23	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 79¢	$476.93	$490.01	+$13.08	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
0xheavy888	Noavg 79¢	$316	$399.8	+$83.8	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
SE sentrio	Noavg 80¢	$4	$287.07	+$41.22	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 93¢	$178.7	$192.05	+$13.35	57% 2487-1893 (4380)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$69.77	$69	-$0.77	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$56.62	$43.1	-$13.51	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 96¢	$24	$24.99	+$0.99	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$24.24	$24	-$0.24	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 80¢	$1.68	$2.1	+$0.42	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
oieshfn345<$100	Noavg 89¢	$1.98	$2	+$0.02	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$27.5	$1.13	-$26.38	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$462.11	$1.1	-$461.01	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.56	$0.14	-$0.42	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.16	$0.01	-$1.15	49% 3284-3450 (6734)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,049.71

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$603.39

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,593.2

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$629.3

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

glennyorkshire

Invested

$963.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$240.36

Record

45%

205-249 (454)

NM-P

Invested

$684.43

Value

$739.66

PnL

+$55.23

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Invested

$476.93

Value

$490.01

PnL

+$13.08

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

0xheavy888

Invested

$316

Value

$399.8

PnL

+$83.8

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

sentrio

Invested

Value

$287.07

PnL

+$41.22

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$178.7

Value

$192.05

PnL

+$13.35

Record

57%

2487-1893 (4380)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$69.77

Value

$69

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$56.62

Value

$43.1

PnL

-$13.51

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0.99

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$24.24

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.42

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

oieshfn345<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.5

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$26.38

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$462.11

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$461.01

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.15

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.